Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. The Australian army is extremely careful to preserve the force-in-being by keeping casualties to a minimum. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. But this will take time. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. If not, what steps have been taken to change our posture? "The fundamental assumption that we could win a war against China is wrong-headed and hawkish; it is also very risky. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. It depends how it starts. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. The impact on Americans would be profound. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. Show map. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China). Such concerns must be overcome before any aid can be offered to our allies. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. India and Pakistan take pains to avoid such escalation. In such a scenario, any Australian task force centred on its largely undefended troop transports and limited warship escorts would be under extreme risk. Beyond out-producing the US Navy in the number of warships at a rate of four to one, the PLA Strategic Rocket Force has put US aircraft carriers at risk with the fielding of the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-carrier ballistic missiles, Mr Fanell said. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. The Australian government has moved to confront Beijing over allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has joined a chorus of. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. "Australia is never reluctant to support and participate in American adventurism. "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. In providing for our own defence we ought to be able to make sufficient and good quality plans provided we have the will to do so. Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. The capital of China is Beijing. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos and the war on IS will end. That is massive! Far fewer know their real story. But unlike Ukraine, where Europe is largely united in condemning Russia, Asia will not be united in condemning China.". Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. "Given the rate at which the Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035. But would Australia immediately take up the fight? I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. "A blockade means that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft will be unable to pass. Let's take a look at who would . Today, the analysis of Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military, are investigated. The structure of the military is also different. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. And Beijing has the advantage of geography. One accident. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. "China's IADS includes an extensive early warning radar network, fighter aircraft, and a variety of surface to air missile (SAM) systems. Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University has testified that China dedicates all its resources to planning and preparing for a contingency in east Asia, while the US has additional responsibilities in the Middle East, Europe and worldwide. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . "Australia has been there before. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." "This is the critical question. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. "But it is an entirely different story with China. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . And, if a shooting war does break out, the US and its allies are not guaranteed a win. In the event of a war: what would Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia do? Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. Tensions continue to simmer . Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. Some wouldn't survive. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. 3-min read. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. 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The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that couldlead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace. The geographic focus is decisive. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. Far fewer know their real story. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. Australias role in such a significant potential conflict has been the subject of intense debate in recent years. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. Part 2. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. All have been involved in sensitive military operations. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. The Pentagon's new report on the Chinese military suggests the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army is less about numbers of missiles than in how they intellectually and organisationally prepare for war. "To the extent that China's strategy is informed by Sun Tzu, it would have a strong preference for a short, sharp war. "The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land, he says. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. ", "China began planning in earnest for a potential conflict with the United States over Taiwan after the May 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.". I suspect the US under the current president, Joe Biden, despite his various ambiguous statements, will avoid a direct confrontation with China. Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating for years, with Beijing now sending fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defence zone on a near-daily basis. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. Possibly completely different. The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides.
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